Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
11 markets WorldGlobal ElectionsBrazilElections
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin o…
Markets in this event
Each is an independent Yes/No market — these percentages don't sum to 100%.
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 1% chance
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? 28% chance Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? 38% chance Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? 14% chance
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? 9% chance Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? 6% chance Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? 0% chance Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? 0% chance
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 3% chance
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 0% chance
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 0% chance