Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
14 markets BusinessTechAI
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Aren…
Markets in this event
Each is an independent Yes/No market — these percentages don't sum to 100%.
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 31% chance
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 32% chance
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 15% chance
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 14% chance
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 7% chance
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 10% chance
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 10% chance
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 10% chance
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 7% chance
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 10% chance
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 9% chance
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 9% chance
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 9% chance
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 9% chance