Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
6 markets ScienceCultureGlobal TempWeather
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This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as nu…
Markets in this event
Each is an independent Yes/No market — these percentages don't sum to 100%.
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? 0% chance Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? 27% chance Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? 3% chance Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? 3% chance Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? 2% chance Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? 65% chance